165 lines
11 KiB
Plaintext
165 lines
11 KiB
Plaintext
U.S. Foreign Policy in the Last Two Decades: Continuity, Rupture, and the Trump Disruption
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Introduction
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From the aftermath of the Cold War in the 1990s to the present day, the United States has been the dominant global power, responsible not only for its own defense and prosperity but also for the maintenance of an international order built on rules, institutions, and alliances. Over the last twenty years, U.S. foreign policy has been shaped by four successive presidents: George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden. Each of these leaders inherited challenges, responded in distinctive ways, and left legacies that continue to shape the world.
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Among them, Donald Trump’s presidency stands out as an anomaly. His “America First” approach challenged assumptions that had defined U.S. foreign policy since 1945, questioning alliances, rejecting multilateral agreements, and pursuing a transactional, nationalist vision. Yet his policies also overlapped with longer-term trends, such as skepticism toward intervention and growing rivalry with China.
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This essay explores U.S. foreign policy across the last two decades, highlighting how Trump both disrupted and continued existing trajectories. It provides regional case studies (Middle East, Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America), thematic analysis (alliances, trade, military strategy), and evaluations of continuity and change.
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I. The Bush Era (2001–2009): The War on Terror and Neoconservative Ambition
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The defining event of early 21st-century U.S. foreign policy was the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Nineteen hijackers from al-Qaeda killed nearly 3,000 people on American soil, shattering the sense of invulnerability that the U.S. had enjoyed after the Cold War.
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Afghanistan
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Within weeks, the Bush administration launched Operation Enduring Freedom, invading Afghanistan to topple the Taliban and dismantle al-Qaeda. Initially successful, the war quickly evolved into a long-term occupation. Nation-building efforts faltered due to corruption, tribal divisions, and Pakistan’s ambivalent role. The U.S. remained bogged down for two decades, with troop surges under Bush, Obama, and later Trump.
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Iraq
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In 2003, the U.S. invaded Iraq, citing Saddam Hussein’s supposed weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and ties to terrorism. Neither claim was substantiated, but the war toppled Hussein and created a power vacuum. The occupation faced insurgencies, sectarian conflict, and international criticism. The Bush Doctrine emphasized preemptive war, unilateral action, and spreading democracy—a neoconservative vision that ultimately overreached.
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Global Strategy
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Bush framed the world in binary terms: states were “with us or against us.” He created the Department of Homeland Security, expanded surveillance, and pursued controversial policies such as enhanced interrogation (widely seen as torture). NATO allies joined initial campaigns but grew wary of America’s unilateralism. By 2008, the wars had cost trillions, weakened U.S. credibility, and set the stage for retrenchment.
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II. The Obama Era (2009–2017): Multilateralism and Retrenchment
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Barack Obama took office promising change. He opposed the Iraq War, sought to restore diplomacy, and emphasized international cooperation.
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Withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan
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Obama withdrew combat troops from Iraq in 2011, though instability and the rise of ISIS later forced renewed engagement. In Afghanistan, he initially surged U.S. forces before committing to gradual withdrawal. His mixed legacy reflected both reluctance for endless wars and difficulty escaping them.
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The Pivot to Asia
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Recognizing China’s rise, Obama announced a “pivot to Asia,” strengthening ties with allies like Japan, South Korea, and Australia. He promoted the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to counterbalance China economically. However, the pivot never fully materialized, partly due to distractions in the Middle East.
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Middle East
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Obama pursued diplomacy with Iran, culminating in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, limiting Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. He also ordered the operation that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011. Yet his decision to intervene in Libya (2011), leading to regime collapse, drew criticism for lacking follow-through. His hesitance in Syria, particularly after Assad’s use of chemical weapons, led some to accuse him of weakness.
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Multilateralism
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Obama rejoined the Paris Climate Agreement, sought arms control with Russia (New START treaty), and promoted global institutions. His foreign policy critics accused him of “leading from behind,” while supporters praised restraint after Bush’s adventurism.
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III. The Trump Era (2017–2021): America First
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Donald Trump entered office with an outsider’s disdain for elite consensus. His worldview, shaped by business negotiations and nationalist rhetoric, emphasized sovereignty, economic nationalism, and skepticism toward alliances.
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1. Alliances and NATO
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Trump repeatedly criticized NATO allies for failing to meet the 2% defense spending target. He openly questioned whether the U.S. should defend allies who did not “pay their share.” Although his administration ultimately reinforced U.S. troop presence in some areas, the rhetoric strained relations.
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2. Middle East
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• Iran: Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, reimposing sanctions under a “maximum pressure” campaign. This escalated tensions, culminating in the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in January 2020.
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• Israel: He moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and brokered the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and Arab states (UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan).
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• Syria: Trump ordered strikes against Assad’s regime after chemical weapons attacks but also sought to reduce U.S. involvement, announcing troop withdrawals that unsettled Kurdish allies.
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3. Asia and China
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Trump launched a trade war with China, imposing tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of goods. He accused Beijing of intellectual property theft, unfair trade, and currency manipulation. Tensions escalated over technology (Huawei, TikTok), Hong Kong, and the South China Sea. The COVID-19 pandemic deepened hostility, with Trump blaming China for the virus.
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4. North Korea
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Trump broke precedent by holding summits with Kim Jong-un in Singapore (2018) and Hanoi (2019). While historic, the talks failed to achieve denuclearization. Critics called the diplomacy naïve, while supporters saw it as a bold opening.
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5. Europe and Russia
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Trump’s relationship with Russia was controversial. While his administration sanctioned Moscow over Crimea and election interference, Trump personally expressed admiration for Putin. He criticized the European Union as a “foe” in trade, withdrew from the INF Treaty, and promoted Brexit.
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6. Multilateral Agreements
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Trump withdrew from:
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• Paris Climate Agreement
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• Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
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• UNESCO
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• World Health Organization (during COVID-19)
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He renegotiated NAFTA, replacing it with USMCA. His preference was for bilateral deals, rejecting multilateralism.
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7. Africa and Latin America
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Trump showed little sustained interest in Africa, focusing on counterterrorism and China’s influence. In Latin America, he recognized Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s leader, tightened sanctions on Cuba, and pursued a hard line on migration from Central America. His rhetoric about “shithole countries” generated global outrage.
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IV. The Biden Era (2021–Present): Restoration and Realism
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Joe Biden promised to restore alliances and global leadership. His administration rejoined the Paris Agreement, re-emphasized NATO, and sought to rebuild trust. Yet Biden also inherited Trump’s populist backlash and the bipartisan consensus on China.
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Afghanistan
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In August 2021, Biden completed the withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending America’s longest war. Though the decision was consistent with Trump’s plan, the chaotic execution drew criticism. The withdrawal symbolized U.S. fatigue with military intervention abroad.
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Europe and Ukraine
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Biden prioritized rebuilding NATO ties. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, his administration rallied Western allies, imposed sweeping sanctions on Moscow, and provided military aid to Kyiv. The war revitalized NATO but also strained global energy and food markets.
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China
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Biden maintained Trump’s hard line, keeping tariffs and emphasizing strategic competition. He strengthened partnerships like the Quad (U.S., Japan, India, Australia) and AUKUS (U.S., UK, Australia). The emphasis on technology, supply chains, and military presence underscored continuity with Trump’s rivalry framing.
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Global Issues
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Biden emphasized democracy versus autocracy as a defining struggle. He promoted climate initiatives and global health cooperation. Yet domestic polarization limited his room for maneuver.
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V. Regional Case Studies
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Middle East
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• Continuity: Both Obama and Trump sought to reduce U.S. military footprint while maintaining influence.
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• Change: Obama favored diplomacy (JCPOA); Trump favored confrontation (withdrawal and sanctions).
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• Legacy: Abraham Accords may represent Trump’s most enduring achievement.
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Europe
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• Continuity: U.S. remains central to NATO.
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• Change: Trump undermined alliance confidence, while Biden restored it.
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• Legacy: Russia’s aggression in Ukraine underscored the importance of U.S. leadership.
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Asia
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• Continuity: Pivot to Asia under Obama, confrontation under Trump, competition under Biden.
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• Change: Trump used tariffs aggressively; Biden emphasizes coalitions.
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• Legacy: U.S.–China rivalry is now the defining global axis.
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Africa
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• Continuity: Counterterrorism and humanitarian aid remain priorities.
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• Change: Trump deprioritized Africa, while China expanded influence.
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• Legacy: U.S. risks losing ground in Africa to Beijing and Moscow.
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Latin America
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• Continuity: Migration, trade, and drug trafficking dominate.
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• Change: Trump took a hard line on Cuba and Venezuela; Biden has been more cautious.
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• Legacy: The region remains peripheral compared to Europe/Asia.
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VI. Themes in Trump’s Foreign Policy
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1. Transactionalism: Viewing alliances as financial arrangements.
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2. Unilateralism: Rejecting multilateral agreements.
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3. Nationalism: Prioritizing sovereignty over global governance.
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4. Personal Diplomacy: Engaging leaders directly, often unpredictably.
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5. Disruption: Challenging taboos (North Korea summits, NATO criticism).
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VII. Continuity vs. Rupture
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While Trump’s style was disruptive, some core shifts—skepticism of intervention, confrontation with China, fatigue with globalization—were already underway. Trump accelerated them with rhetoric and symbolic gestures. Biden has restored some norms but retained key elements, especially vis-à-vis China and trade protectionism.
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Conclusion
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Over the last two decades, U.S. foreign policy has evolved from Bush’s interventionism to Obama’s multilateral retrenchment, Trump’s America First nationalism, and Biden’s attempt at restoration under great-power competition. Trump was both a disruptor and a symptom: his presidency revealed deep domestic disillusionment with globalization and alliances, but also crystallized trends that are likely to persist. The world that emerges is one of selective engagement, contested leadership, and enduring rivalry with China.
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